The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be ‘above normal’ with three to five major hurricanes of category three strength or over, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

In a press conference on Thursday 22 May, NOAA officials said the technical systems being used to predict the weather are more advanced and accurate than ever.

NOAA’s outlook for the season predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

NOAA said the reason for the above-normal forecast is due to “a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All these elements tend to favour tropical storm formation.”

NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham called the weather prediction a “call to action” and urged people to “be prepared” for the season which lasts from 1 June to 30 November. 

He added: “Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre will update the 2025 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, before the historical peak of the season.

Source: NOAA.gov.

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